Friday, April 25, 2014

Can Gold Price Peak Again After 2012?

If you look at the gold trend chart here, you can see that the gold price has reached it's peak in 2012.

The most interesting is, my previous funny theory based on 2012 prophecy about gold price will reach it's peak in 2012 had become a reality. What??? Yes, if you don't believe me, you can read this post - "Gold Price Going Up Because of 2012 Prophecy" that I wrote in 2010. It seems like is really true that everyone sells gold once they realized they're not dead in 2012!!!

This is the 40 years gold's price trend (based on USD/oz) but it doesn't matter, all currencies should have about the same trend.

You can see that there are 2 peaks here. First peak is in 1980 and another one is 2012. After the first peak in 1980, it took ~30 years to start climbing up in ~2003. So now, the second peak is in 2012, it will take how long to start climbing up again? Yes, you know the answer.

My opinion is gold will not reach another peak anytime soon based on this historical data. Of course with one exception, another prophecy comes out. Perhaps 2024 doomsday prophecy? Then, this gold price will start climbing up again....

So investing in Gold is no longer can be considered as a long term investment. You can still invest in Gold but it is not for long term anymore. This means you need to watch closely to sell and buy at the right time. My suggestion is to use technical analysis to analyze the gold trend. The basic one is support and resistance and you can read more about it here - "How to Use Support & Resistance?" that I wrote sometime ago.

Let's look at the latest gold trend in 1 year below:

You can see the support is line at USD 1200 - converted to MYR per gram is RM 125 (you can refer to my gold trend chart so you don't need to do your own conversion). This basically means you should start buying gold when it reach the support line. If it breaks the support line (means goes below the support line), let's say more than 20% or 10% (up to you to define), then you sell it because this support line will become a resistance line.

This is just a very quick technical analysis of my own. You will need to do more analysis and also look at the different timeline to make the best decision.


So, can gold price peak again after 2012? I think is very unlikely in a very long time. Perhaps another 20 years or 30 years? The previous perception on gold is for long term investment is no longer true. You can't simply just invest and let it auto run.

You may just need to watch out if you still think gold has its very high potential to go beyond 2012's peak which maybe possible too. Who knows? Let me know your thoughts.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

4 Common Obstacles Homebuyers Face

Guest Post By Tali Wee of Zillow

Shopping for a house is an exciting and potentially life-changing endeavor, full of emotional highs and lows. Shoppers hunt weekend after weekend at open houses and search online hourly, all for the ultimate goal of finding the perfect place to call home. The process might seem exhilarating for first-time shoppers, but the pressure of time-sensitive decision-making can become overwhelming.

When buyers have their finances in order, their lists of must-have features and the perfect neighborhoods in mind, they’re ready to dive into the house-hunting mission. Here are a four more circumstances they should mentally prepare for to avoid emotional fatigue if the process gets tough.

1. Low Supply

All home shoppers have at least a general idea of the types of homes they’re looking for when they begin their searches. Typically, they research the ideal neighborhoods with the best schools and lowest crime rates. As long as properties are within their price ranges, the hunt narrows down to the specific features they desire. When qualifications are restricted to a single community, school district, square-footage and price range, the properties in the best condition receive widespread interest. Only so many homes are up for sale, so it takes time to find the perfect property.

Unless buyers adjust their must-have lists and open their minds to homes that need repairs, it’s easy to become discouraged by the lack of inventory. It pays to make a list of non-negotiable features, and otherwise broaden the search to a few optimal communities.

2. Market Pressure

House hunting is not easy for those seeking instant gratification. Although some buyers luckily find their ideal homes at their price points, many continue searching for months. One benefit of a long pursuit is that buyers learn a deeper understanding of the true value of homes on the market. With a better idea of value, they gain confidence in making fair offers.

Buyers may begin to feel the pressure of rising interest rates and home value appreciation. Instead of throwing offers at moderately desirable properties before prices rise, house hunters should reevaluate their non-negotiable features. Avoid buyer’s remorse by sticking to the essential search criteria and making reasonable offers. Don’t settle on such an expensive and long-lasting decision.

3. Competitive Buyers

Another discouraging obstacle in the home-buying process is the level of local competition. In popular markets with low inventory, multiple parties sometimes engage in bidding wars. Add investors with all-cash offers into the mix and the conventional or FHA loan with 20 percent down won’t make the cut. Some buyers try to increase the chances of their offers getting accepted by foregoing inspections or offering more than asking price. Buyers offering substantially more than asking price may end up purchasing properties for more than they are truly worth.

However, if a buyer completely falls in love with a house he or she might justify the additional monthly cost. For instance, a home priced at $200,000 with a 20 percent down payment ($40,000) on a 30-year fixed loan with a 4.3 percent interest rate would cost the buyer $1,058 monthly (including 1.2 percent taxes and $800 insurance). If buyers with the same loan terms and same $40,000 down payment committed to $210,000, they would pay $1,180 monthly. Depending on FICO and loan amounts, borrowers would also pay $32 to $55 in private mortgage insurance (PMI) each month until they had 20 percent equity. Although $10,000 is a large sum, it only affects the monthly payment by $154 to $177. At $20,000 above asking, the buyer pays $1,243 monthly plus $35 to $59 PMI, or $220 to $244 more. As long as the appraiser and lender approve the purchase price, buyers can offer more than asking price.

4. Inspections

When a shopper finally outbids other buyers on a house he or she feels confident about, the buyer still risks losing the house based on the inspection. Buyers get the opportunity to hire a professional inspector to evaluate the roof, attic, crawl spaces, etc. The buyer might opt to back out of the purchase if the report indicates the property has asbestos, mold, extensive water damage, pest infestations, major electrical damages or other serious issues.

The costs of repairs are not always worth the investment for the buyer. They can negotiate with the seller to correct the issues, pay for the repairs or reduce the purchase price low enough to cover the cost of repairs. If buyers and sellers cannot come to a compromise, then buyers face the disappointment of heading back to the buyer’s market.

Even though home shopping produces some challenging obstacles for buyers, it’s still an exciting journey. Competitive markets require homebuyers to make major life-changing decisions in just hours, all for the sake of finding the perfect property to feel at home. With proper preparation, the experience can be both thrilling and successful.

Bio: Tali Wee is a blogger for Zillow and other partners. She writes about home-related topics such as home improvements, interior design on a budget and financing mortgages.

Saturday, April 05, 2014

Is Malaysian Ringgit Currency Strong?

A lot of people say Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) currency is not strong and will be depreciating in long run and it is better we convert to foreign currency if we want to maintain the value. Is that true? So I dig a little bit research on the MYR currency trend in the past 10 years for your reference here.

The following graphs show you how much 1 MYR can be converted to foreign currency in the past 10 years. I list down the countries that I"m interested in. If the trend goes up, it means MYR currency is stronger and vice-verse.

AUD (Australia $) per 1 MYR

USD (United State $) per 1 MYR

EUR (Euro) per 1 MYR

GBP (British Pound) per 1 MYR

Well if you look at the starting point and ending point of these graphs, MYR currency is either stay stable or appreciate. To AUS and EUR currencies , MYR currency is stable. To USD and GBP, MYR currency is doing good (mostly due to subprime crisis I think).

Let's continue to see our neighbors...

HKG (Hong Kong $) per 1 MYR

SGD (Singapore $) per 1 MYR

CNY (Chinese Yuan) per 1 MYR

TWD (Taiwan New $) per 1 MYR

KRW (South Korea Won) per 1 MYR

IDR (Indonesian Rupiah) per 1 MYR

Compared to all our neighbours, MYR currency is doing good in the past 10 years except for for CNY (so, my previous prediction on RMB/CNY is correct? lol)  and SGD.  We only lost to these 2 countries. :)

Source: all charts are from


I"m not expert in Forex but just want to emphasize the perception on MYR currency has no value (or depreciate) in long run may not be true at least based on the past 10 years data, MYR currency is doing fine. Well, you can shorten to 5 years, it is not that great as 10 years but it is still considered okay in my opinion.

If you are really scare and don't trust MYR currency, it seems like CNY (Chinese Yuan) or SGD (Singapore Dollar) is the currency that you want to convert to based on the past 10 years trend above.

So, is Malaysia (MYR) currency strong? I think yes based the past 10 years. Just only 2 countries are doing better than Malaysia which is Singapore and China, I will consider that is doing quite good already. Agree?

Didn't find what you want? Use Google Search Engine below: