Friday, April 25, 2014

Can Gold Price Peak Again After 2012?

If you look at the gold trend chart here, you can see that the gold price has reached it's peak in 2012.

The most interesting is, my previous funny theory based on 2012 prophecy about gold price will reach it's peak in 2012 had become a reality. What??? Yes, if you don't believe me, you can read this post - "Gold Price Going Up Because of 2012 Prophecy" that I wrote in 2010. It seems like is really true that everyone sells gold once they realized they're not dead in 2012!!!

This is the 40 years gold's price trend (based on USD/oz) but it doesn't matter, all currencies should have about the same trend.

You can see that there are 2 peaks here. First peak is in 1980 and another one is 2012. After the first peak in 1980, it took ~30 years to start climbing up in ~2003. So now, the second peak is in 2012, it will take how long to start climbing up again? Yes, you know the answer.

My opinion is gold will not reach another peak anytime soon based on this historical data. Of course with one exception, another prophecy comes out. Perhaps 2024 doomsday prophecy? Then, this gold price will start climbing up again....

So investing in Gold is no longer can be considered as a long term investment. You can still invest in Gold but it is not for long term anymore. This means you need to watch closely to sell and buy at the right time. My suggestion is to use technical analysis to analyze the gold trend. The basic one is support and resistance and you can read more about it here - "How to Use Support & Resistance?" that I wrote sometime ago.

Let's look at the latest gold trend in 1 year below:

You can see the support is line at USD 1200 - converted to MYR per gram is RM 125 (you can refer to my gold trend chart so you don't need to do your own conversion). This basically means you should start buying gold when it reach the support line. If it breaks the support line (means goes below the support line), let's say more than 20% or 10% (up to you to define), then you sell it because this support line will become a resistance line.

This is just a very quick technical analysis of my own. You will need to do more analysis and also look at the different timeline to make the best decision.


So, can gold price peak again after 2012? I think is very unlikely in a very long time. Perhaps another 20 years or 30 years? The previous perception on gold is for long term investment is no longer true. You can't simply just invest and let it auto run.

You may just need to watch out if you still think gold has its very high potential to go beyond 2012's peak which maybe possible too. Who knows? Let me know your thoughts.


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